Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week above $20,000 but is setting a new bearish record as a key support level has not been reached.
After a quiet weekend punctuated by a short spike to $22,000, BTC/USD has returned to the Friday closing price of the CME futures markets.
So a “round trip” allows traders to pick up where they left off at the end of last week’s Wall Street trading session, but what could happen in the days ahead?
A familiar cocktail of macro threats and continued downward trends are making the current climate far from ideal for the average hodler. Despite seeing some relief in the past week, crypto markets continue to bear the brunt of the cold feet that have increasingly defined macro sentiment throughout 2022.
Meanwhile, with the close of June fast approaching, Bitcoin is facing several days of reckoning over what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential market triggers for the week ahead as inflation soars and the cryptocurrency struggles to get it back on its feet.
Traders expect July to provide BTC price “catalysts”
“Indifferent” is a good word to describe the general feeling of resignation among Bitcoin traders this week.
While the weekend saved the average owner from more unpleasant surprises, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC/USD is far from where anyone would like it to be – even in a bear market.
With the 200-week key moving average (WMA) out of reach, there is a precious little bullish sentiment there, as evidenced by the “extreme fear” of the Crypto Fear and Greed Index still being tightly controlled.
“Over the next 6 months BTC will capitulate and the cycle will bottom out (anywhere between $14-$21k), then cut around $28-40k for most of 2023, and again to $40,000 by the next halving,” said Venturefounder, a contributor to analysts. will be.” -chain analytics platform CryptoQuant summarized in one chapter. Twitter update on 27 June.
Venturefounder’s thesis is indicative of a broader belief that the bottom for Bitcoin is not yet at the bottom, and that any relief moves are just that – on the way to lower levels, distractions suck capital out of market newcomers and weak hands.
Expectations are that the first week of July could provide the next major bout of volatility in crypto and risk assets.
Popular trader Crypto Tony said, “Not much will happen in Bitcoin overnight, but I’m currently expecting a rather slow week due to lack of catalyst.” approved.
“July will be a more active month for volatility due to upcoming catalysts.”
For Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the first week of next month is a time when macro stars will once again align to punish hodlers.
In a blog post in early June, he marked the United States Federal Reserve’s ultra-high rate hike and balance sheet cut as the backdrop for a risk asset nightmare.
“By June 30 (end of the second quarter), the Fed will have raised interest rates by 75 basis points and will start shrinking its balance sheet. It falls on Monday, July 4th, and is a federal and banking holiday. This is the perfect setup for another mega crypto dump,” Hayes warned.
Therefore, a “wild journey downstream” may be just days away.
As Cointelegraph reports, the popular consensus for an actual price bottom focuses on the area between the following. $14,000 and $16,000but $11,000 also appeared; This corresponds to an 84.5% drop compared to Bitcoin’s all-time high.
How normal is this bear?
While some panic is selling their BTC, analysts are trying to show that there is nothing unusual in the scope of the Bitcoin bear market so far.
Among them is on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in its latest piece of research, “The Month of Historical Rates,” is calling for calm in BTC below $20,000.
“Bear market lows have historically been established with BTC drops from -75% to -84% from ATH and lasted 260 days in 2019-20 and 410 days in 2015,” he wrote.
“This bear market is now strictly within historical norms and size, with the current decline reaching -73.3 percent below November 2021 ATH and taking anywhere between 227 days and 435 days.”
It’s not Bitcoin itself that highlights the current climate, but investors’ reactions to price changes.
Despite losses remaining within historical norms, BTC’s sales at a loss surpassed previous records.
“The recent price drop towards the $20,000 region was punctuated by the largest daily USD-denominated loss in history,” Glassnode said.
“Investors collectively locked in losses of -4.234 billion dollars in a single day, a 22.5% increase from the previous record of $3,457 billion set in mid-2021.”
In terms of BTC, the losses are the third largest in Bitcoin history.
BTC risks first monthly close below 200WMA
With three days left until the end of June, things look either alarming or “interesting” for Bitcoin, depending on one’s perspective.
With the bear market in full swing, BTC/USD remains below a key trendline that supported it during previous macro lows. The 200-week moving average (WMA), which has never fallen in value, is currently at $22,430.
As Cointelegraph reported, in previous bear markets, Bitcoin retained the 200WMA as support as it broke below to set floor prices.
This time, however, the level turns into resistance as the bulls’ attempts to follow historical norms have repeatedly failed. So the end of the month could be “interesting” as the Stock-to-Stream price model creator PlanB will mark the first monthly close ever below the 200WMA.
An accompanying chart uploaded on June 26 shows the correlation between Bitcoin’s 200WMA and its distance from block halving events; they describe four-year cycles that include the bear market paradigms mentioned earlier.
This is getting interesting! Unless BTC closes June above 200WMA ($22k), this will be the first monthly close below 200WMA ever. 4 days left.. pic.twitter.com/YtshVcIpks
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) 26 June 2022
Meanwhile, Checkmate, an on-chain analyst at Glassnode, pointed out the unusual bearish characteristics currently characterizing BTC price.
In addition to being below 200WMA, BTC/USD is also below its actual price, and the Mayer Multiple metric is deep in the “buy” zone.
As Cointelegraph recently reported, the Mayer Multiple shows how much below the 200-day moving average the price is, and therefore how likely a buy at a certain level is to yield asymmetric returns.
“Such events in the past occurred on only 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days,” Checkmate wrote in part of a tweet.
#Bitcoin It is trading below the following patterns that have converged around bear market bottoms in the past:
200W moving average
0.6 x Mayer Multi
In the past, such events occurred on only 13 of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days. pic.twitter.com/DtWGMrL2U2
— _Checkɱate ⚡ (@_Checkmatey_) 26 June 2022
Bitcoin dominance drops from multi-month high
Altcoins have suffered more than Bitcoin due to the confusion from multiple major projects, including Terra and Celsius.
But now the tables are turning – Bitcoin dominance has reversed after this year’s rally, leading to suggestions that altcoins could be the place to be in the short term.
“Bitcoin dominance is falling strongly. The advantage now lies in altcoins,” he said. summarized.
After hitting an 11-month high of 48.36% on June 11, Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap has slumped to 43.46% at the time of writing – a noticeable change in less than three weeks.
For seasoned trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin’s relative strength against alternatives may be more important than the bulls’ eye.
“This painting may be the biggest ‘tell’,” he said. argued about market cap dominance data.
“A decisive retracement of over 50 percent would be a huge positive.”
Others, meanwhile, are confident that, despite the latest reversal, it’s not time for altcoins to shine meaningfully forward.
Holding BTC is still the best bet for an investor, according to Venturefounder.
This type of event has also happened many times throughout the 2018 cycle. pic.twitter.com/SJQolLNvy6
— enterprisef◎undΞr (@venturefounder) 27 June 2022
Trading suite Decentrader, “Normal bear market narrative altcoins bleed more than Bitcoin” Additional in separate comments about the last act of domination.
“However, for the last 2 weeks altcoins have (usually) performed well. So either ‘This time is different’ or ‘This won’t last’. Dominance remains in the range of 40-48%.”
Bitcoin is going mainstream again – for the wrong reasons
Bitcoin is more popular among mainstream internet users than at any other time in a year – but is it something worth celebrating?
Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, UNI, XLM, THETA, HNT
Data from Google Trends confirms that more people are researching “Bitcoin” on Google this month than at any point since May 2021.
However, as it stands now, BTC price action was targeting long-term lows rather than highs, suggesting it was bearish events that triggered mainstream interest.
By comparison, last November’s all-time high seems like a minor drop off the radar when it comes to search interest.
not capitulation pic.twitter.com/rmp7ukK1HU
— JACKIS (@i_am_jackis) 26 June 2022
Because of this, there has been increased activity for phrases like “Bitcoin is dead,” noted by social media users as a possible sign that the market is in the “surrender” phase.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author alone and may not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.