According to a report by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bear market is one of the worst. This was the first time in history that the Mayer Multiple had dropped below the low of the previous cycle. Bitcoin’s plunge below $20,000 on June 18 was the biggest loss ever recorded by investors, with $4.23 billion in a single day. Glassnode believes that the capitulation in Bitcoin may have begun considering the above factors and a few other events.
Bitcoin whales seem to have started their purchases, suggesting that the bottom may be near, and on June 25, analytics resource “Game of Trades” highlighted that demand from whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins has witnessed a sharp increase in demand.
Another sign that traders are buying comes from Glassnode comments, which suggest that the 30-day average change in supply held on exchanges dropped 153,849 Bitcoin on June 26, the largest in history.
Can the bulls continue their buying on the dips and create a higher bottom? Let’s examine the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin dropped from $22,000 on June 26, suggesting that sentiment is downside and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will try to bring the price down to $20,000 psychologically.
If the price rises to $20,000, it indicates that the bulls are piling up on the dips. This could hold the pair between $20,000 and $22,000 for a few days.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($22,890). This could open the doors for a possible rally from the $24,693 low to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
This level could act as a resistance again, but if the bulls break the barrier, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($27,150). The bulls will have to push the price above this level to indicate that the pair may have bottomed out.
Ether (ETH) reached the 20-day EMA ($1,300) on June 26 but the bulls failed to push the price above the resistance. This suggests that bears are not willing to give up their advantage so easily.
If the price drops from the current level, the bears will try to push the ETH/USDT pair to $1,050. This is an important level to watch out for because a break below this could indicate that the bears are in control.
Conversely, if the price rebounds from the current level or rebounds from $1,050, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do so, the pair could rally to the $1,700 breakout level. A break and close above this resistance could indicate the start of a new uptrend.
BNB has been holding on to the 20-day EMA ($241) since June 24. This shows that the bears are holding the level, but the bulls have not given up yet as they expect a higher move.
If buyers push the price above the 20-days EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($277). This level could act as a tough hurdle again, but if surpassed, the pair could attempt a rally towards $350.
Conversely, if the price drops from the current level, the pair could drop to $211. This is an important level to consider because a rebound will indicate that the bulls are attempting to form a higher low. However, if the level breaks, the pair could retest vital support at $183.
Ripple (XRP) broke above the overhead resistance at $0.35 on June 24 and closed, but the bulls failed to break through the barrier at the 50-day SMA ($0.38). This indicates that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
A minor positive is that the bulls are not allowing the price to drop below the 20-day EMA ($0.35). This suggests buying on the dips. If the price bounces back from the current level, the bulls will try to push the price back above the 50-day SMA.
If they can achieve this, it will suggest that the downtrend may weaken. The XRP/USDT pair could rally to $0.45 later.
Another possibility is for bears to push the price below $0.35. If this happens, the pair could decline to $0.32 and then to $0.28.
Buyers pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) on June 26, but the long wick on the candlestick indicates that the bears are aggressively selling higher.
A minor positive is that the bulls are not giving up on the floor and are again trying to break through the overall hurdle in the moving averages. If successful, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $0.70, where the bears can once again form a strong defense.
If the price drops sharply from this level, it would suggest that the pair remain borderline between $0.40 and $0.70 for a while.
This positive view could be negated in the short term if the price breaks down from the current level and drops below $0.44. This could push the pair to $0.40.
Solana (SOL) has been stuck between the moving averages since June 24. This indicates that bears are selling on rallies to the 50-day SMA ($43) and bulls are buying on dips to the 20-days EMA ($38).
The moving averages are close to a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, suggesting that the bulls are attempting a reversal. If buyers push the price above the 50-day SMA, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $60.
This level could act as a stiff resistance again, but if the bulls break through this hurdle, the momentum could increase. On the contrary, if the price drops and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the bears have beaten the bulls. The pair could slide to $33 later.
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on June 25 and closed. Buyers extended the recovery on June 26 and pushed the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.08), but the long wick on the candlestick indicates this. bears are fiercely defending the level.
Buyers are again trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they do, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $0.09 and then to the psychological $0.10 level. This level could act as a resistance again, but if the bulls break through this hurdle, the momentum is likely to increase.
Alternatively, if the price fails to stay above the 50-day SMA, it will indicate that the bears continue to sell in the rallies. The bears will then try to push the price below the 20-day EMA.
Related: Dogecoin price could rise 20% in July with this bullish trend pattern
The bears have been aggressively defending the 20-day EMA ($8.11) at Polkadot (DOT) since June 24 but a positive sign is that the bulls are not giving up much ground. A tight consolidation near a resistance is usually resolved to the upside.
If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($9.13). This level can act as a hurdle again, but a break above it is likely. If this happens, the pair could rally to $10.75.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels. Sellers will then try to push the pair below $7.30 and push the crucial support at $6.36.
The Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke above the 50-day SMA ($0.000011) on June 25 but the bulls were unable to continue the recovery. The bears sold around $0.000012 on June 26 and are trying to push the price below the 50-day SMA.
The 20-day EMA ($0.00010) has started to rise gradually and the RSI is in the positive territory. This suggests that buyers have a slight advantage. If the price bounces back from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to continue the upside move again.
If the price rises above $0.000012, the SHIB/USDT pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $0.000014. This positive view may be rejected in the short term if the price drops and dips below the 20-day EMA.
Avalanche (AVAX) has been in a tight range since June 25 between the 20-day EMA ($20) and overhead resistance at $21.35. This signals indecision between the bulls and bears.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which indicates an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If the bulls push the price above $21.35, the AVAX/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($25). This level could act as a minor hurdle, but if surpassed, the pair could rally to $30.
This positive view may be invalidated in the short term if the price breaks from the current level or the 50-day SMA and falls below the 20-day EMA. This could open the doors for a possible drop to $16.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author alone and may not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided as follows: HitBTC exchange.